Downswing

Tilt is the bane of any poker player's existence, but downswings come close. In tilt, you are beating yourself which is the worst, but what leads to that is sometimes a downswing. Things just don't seem to go right and the "One Times" never get there. The bankroll hemorrhages and if you don't have the proper necessities, it can ruin you. You just have to remember that a wise man once said, "an upswing is always right around the corner." You just have to keep going until you walk past that corner.

Week 13 Picks

Ugly week last week, 1-3-1, but I also don't have my entire heart into the analysis. Sigh, half-assing it, but I still want to finish. The total record is 27-31-2. Let's try to get above .500. This week's picks are

BUF +3
JAC -1
49ers +1
GIANTS +1
balt +3

Week 12 Picks

I know I'm done supposedly forever, but I'm going to finish this season semi-strong and see how I feel about it afterwards. 2-3 record last weekend bringing the total up to 26-28-21. There is no chance of scoring with a record like that... Anyways picks this week are

giants -6
bears +10.5
cardinals +3
CHARGERS -13.5
pats +1

Why I'm Done

I'm done with sportsbetting forever. LOL! When I say that I really really know it. Ok, at the back of my mind I'm going "really, really?" Well this post is to remind me why it is exactly that I'm done. Yes, I had a brutal week, but it wasn't the driving force between the done forever decision. I went 4-8 and dropped close to 2 dimes, but I have a lot of heart and it really didn't bother me that much. No regrets on any of my picks either, I go with my instincts, and I die by my instincts. I'm done because I'm getting lazy to research intensely, I do have other commitments I want to do in life. I could do this with less intensity and at lower financial terms, but if I'm going to do something, I'm going to be doing it "all-in." I'm done because the mathematics don't make sense behind me betting 200-500 dollars a unit.
100/105x100x.55-100/105x100x.45= 9.52/2 = 4.76
My calculated ev is 4.76 for every 100 dollars I have in action and that is assuming a very decent edge at 55 percent. Thus, my take with about 3k in action a week is about 150 dollars for all that work. I like my poker hourly much more and the variance is pretty sick. I like action, but sometimes I have to find action elsewhere if it's not too good for my bankroll. The standard deviation is at maybe 25 percent of that total. In order to make a decent amount each weekend, ie 1k, I would have to put up nearly 20k in action a week. That's nearly 2k a unit and the standard deviation would be about 5k. I don't want to dig myself into a big whole just by variance as 20k could very well just all be gone. For a thousand dollars I probably have to watch over 10 hours of football, read and analyze football for at least an hour a day leading to maybe 50 dollars/hour which I can do at the micro-stakes poker for a lot less variance. In competing for the Superbook contest, I would love the competition to win, but perhaps it's equivalent to a donkament. If I am a 55% winner, I expect to have 47 points by the end of the year. According to some charts the average winner had 54.5 points. That's average and the variance is pretty high, but the point is I would have to run one standard deviation above mean to achieve that at a 10% chance just for a chance. The hundred grand take away first prize after taxes just doesn't make it worth it. I guess the rate of return on 1.5k to win 10k is tremendous, but that might also be overestimating my edge, and the commitment is also great. I know the math behind it is probably fuzzy and when you run hot, math is idiotic! Most importantly though, I want to do other things with my life than sittin', waitin', wishin' the ball would bounce one or some way. I do love the game, but the price right now is too high, (opportunity cost) I doubt I'm a loser, but who knows. I hate quitting, but as the General said in American Gangster, "quitting and quitting while you are ahead are not the same thing." As they say, "in the long-run we are all dead." I'll just have to find action elsewhere, I do love challenges and I think I might have one or two in mind right now. O, last note, I'm framing the last hundo I'm cashing out to remind me of the decision.

Week 11 Picks

Just wow, just when I thought things were going to go smoothly and I have it figured out, life happens. I went 1-4 last week bringing the total record to 24-25-1. Things were so bad in actual betting that I immediately contemplated quitting after the Arizona/Seattle game where I had a big parlay on over and Seattle +9, and of course Seattle commits a turnover on the goalline in the closing minute with a chance to cover with just a fg. I think I'm done forever, will do a post on that later, but I'll finish this mock contest off strong. I doubt I'm actually going to do this contest next year, but we'll see.

PHILLY -3
seattle +10.5
BALT +1
sf +6.5
TEXANS -4.5

Week 10 Picks

I'm heating up, I just went a perfect 5-0 last weekend. Let's get a few more of those going, bringing the total ytd record to 23-21-1. Anyways this week's picks are
SF -3
philly +1
OAK -1
atl -1
sea +9

Struggles

I guess the tilt never dissapears, it just takes hibernation or another form. Things have been going very well lately, but today I just hit a wall. I felt tired and depressed at the table. Sure I didn't run optimally, but I also played pretty terribly. I made dinner and decided to do something else and immediately feel better, but still think I'll head to bed early. Here are some ideas for myself in the future when I'm having a bad day... I'm exhausted right now from school work and I made a very unwise propbet to get in volume, but I want to show myself I'm a great grinder. Back to the grind tomorrow...

1. Cook
2. Plan a vacation trip
3. Read
4. Watch a movie
5. Go out and do something, anything, maybe not always the gym, but something else

Things to prevent Tilt
1. Bankroll
2. Live the good life
3. Realize that just because you ran bad today doesn't mean you will run bad tomorrow. And if you played bad, just because you played bad today, it doesn't mean you'll play bad tomorrow. The point is today is today and tomorrow is another day.
4. HAVE FUN! “I was worried about tonight, last night. Last night, I should have been worried about last night, and the night before that I should have been worried about that night. Because worrying about tomorrow is a bunch of shit. Because tomorrow may not never come. Tomorrow, there’s no guarantee about tomorrow. Fuck tomorrow. You get what I’m saying? And yesterday is shit. Yesterday’s that’s history. Yesterday is gone. Yesterday we’re nothing man. It’s gone, man. What’s all you got to worry about, is right here, right now. Right now!” - David Lee Roth